The question of how we can anticipate the evolution of crops and determine the optimal interventions to ensure future harvests is one that invites multiple perspectives. Some viewpoints are more technical, grounded in on-the-ground realities, while others may be more abstract or theoretical. To explore this issue in depth, the experiences of two agronomist experts, each coming from different fields, offer valuable insights.
Joaquín Olona’s Perspective on the Future of Agriculture
Joaquín Olona, a distinguished agronomist who has served as the Dean of the College of Agronomists of Aragon, a regional agricultural advisor, and a consultant specializing in rural development, approaches the question from the perspective of the family farmer. This is the farmer who works in rural areas and who, on many occasions, has taken to the streets to voice concerns about agricultural policies. Olona’s viewpoint is clear: the survival of the family farmer is not determined by choosing a better crop. He argues that the focus should not be on finding the “best” crop, as no single crop guarantees success. Rather, the key to securing the future of family farming lies in having adequate policies. Without proper support, the survival of family farms, regardless of the crop being cultivated, becomes a challenge.
Olona further points out that the major issue for family farmers is not necessarily profitability but insufficient income. This distinction is crucial, as it reveals that the problem is not that farming is unprofitable, but that it does not generate enough income to sustain the farmer and their family. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), while ambitious, is seen by Olona as attempting to address all these issues, including rural development. However, he believes that the CAP could place more emphasis on supporting the family farm model, even though he acknowledges that the policy does strive to address this.
Juan Sagarna’s Approach to Securing Future Harvests
Juan Sagarna, another agronomist with extensive experience in agricultural technology, also underscores the importance of increasing the scale of agricultural operations to ensure the security of future harvests. For Sagarna, it is not about the size of the land or the profitability of crops that matters, but rather the economic dimension of operations. The focus should be on increasing the volume of sales, as this, together with income, is a better indicator of the success of a farm than merely looking at hectares of land or profitability per hectare.
To achieve this, Sagarna advocates for the integration of technology, knowledge, and greater control over farm operations. He highlights the importance of farmers being involved in structures and value chains that help them reach markets and provide access to the latest agricultural technologies. Whether farmers choose horizontal integration (such as cooperatives) or vertical integration (such as with companies in the pork industry) is less important than ensuring that these organizations have the financial, technical, and management capabilities to support farmers effectively. Sagarna makes it clear that while defending the family farm model is important, it is no longer realistic to expect family farms to survive independently. Instead, they must connect with larger, more capable entities to remain viable.
Agricultural Health and Sustainability
In addition to discussing the importance of farm size and economic scale, both Olona and Sagarna emphasize the significance of plant health in securing the future of crops. Olona argues that controlling pests and diseases is essential not only for ensuring food production but also for maintaining credibility in global agricultural markets. A farm’s ability to manage plant health with rigor and credibility ensures access to these markets and serves as a guarantee for the farm’s future.
Sagarna takes a slightly different approach, focusing on the evolving paradigm of agricultural resilience. Traditionally, agricultural practices focused on plant health, nutrients, and pest control. Today, however, Sagarna points out that the focus is shifting toward soil management. He explains that healthier, more biodiverse soils support better plant growth and reduce the need for chemical treatments. This shift has contributed to the growing popularity of regenerative and organic farming practices. Healthy soils, Sagarna argues, offer greater biodiversity, which in turn creates a natural balance against pests.
Technology and Data Management in Agriculture
As the agricultural industry continues to evolve, the integration of technology becomes indispensable. One key technological advancement discussed by both experts is the implementation of field notebooks (cuadernos de campo). Olona is a strong advocate for the use of these tools, stressing that maintaining an up-to-date record of farm activities is essential for improving agricultural practices. While he acknowledges that the administrative approach to these records can be flawed, he argues that data collection and management are crucial for farm improvement. According to Olona, “what is not written down is forgotten.”
Sagarna concurs, emphasizing that while the adoption of field notebooks is inevitable, it is essential to standardize the data and ensure that farmers retain control over it. He cautions against allowing large corporations, such as supermarkets or machinery companies, to obtain and exploit this data without the farmer’s consent. To protect farmers’ interests, Sagarna suggests that cooperatives are the ideal platform to safeguard farmers’ data and ensure it is used for their benefit.
Adapting to Climate Change: A Growing Challenge for Agriculture
Looking ahead, both Olona and Sagarna highlight the importance of adapting agricultural practices to the reality of climate change. Olona stresses the importance of understanding the local impacts of climate change, noting that every increase in temperature could result in a reduction of up to 7% in the yield of cereal crops. This has significant implications for the future of crop production, particularly in regions where agriculture is highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations.
Sagarna adds that crops, particularly those in Spain like vineyards, will likely migrate to regions where climate conditions are more favorable. He points out that rising temperatures and water scarcity will drive vineyards to the northwest, where they will be more productive and suffer less from the adverse effects of heat. Sagarna also expresses optimism about the potential of genetic improvement to create new crop varieties that are more resilient to drought and resistant to pests. Although he acknowledges that these developments will take time, he believes that genetically modified crops will play an essential role in meeting the challenges posed by climate change.
Conclusion: The Future of Agriculture and the Role of Technology
In conclusion, securing the future of agricultural production involves a combination of increasing farm size, integrating technology, improving soil health, and adapting to the effects of climate change. Both Joaquín Olona and Juan Sagarna agree that the survival and success of agricultural operations depend on the integration of technological innovations that enable better control over farm activities, increase resilience, and ensure sustainability.
The use of technology such as precision farming tools, drones, and predictive analytics will become increasingly important in anticipating the evolution of crops and addressing challenges like climate change, pest management, and soil degradation. However, as both experts point out, technology alone is not enough. Farmers must also be supported by adequate policies, education, and access to financial resources, which will enable them to harness the power of technology and safeguard the future of agriculture.
In the future, agriculture will no longer rely solely on traditional practices but will be a dynamic, data-driven industry that can adapt to the changing climate, market demands, and technological advancements. By embracing these changes, farmers can ensure that their operations remain viable, productive, and sustainable for generations to come.